Jameis Winston: Franchise Savior or Future Bust?

At 8:00pm EST on April 30th, 2015, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will select Jameis Winston with the top pick of this year's draft, it's a forgone conclusion and we've all pretty much accepted it. But what is going to happen beyond that? Sure he won the Heisman Trophy in 2013 but that seems to rarely translate into any NFL success, just look at the the 10 winners of the award before him:

2012 - Johnny Manziel: It's still early to call him a bust just yet but given his horrible play with the Browns in his rookie season last year and off-field antics, the future looks bleak thus far.

2011 - Robert Griffin III: Still may be too early but being benched in favor of Colt McCoy? That's a one-way trip to bust town.

2010 - Cam Newton: After a rough first half to his 2nd NFL season, Cam has carried the Panthers franchise on his back and has been pretty impressive ever since. Imagine what Carolina could do once they get more decent players around him?

2009 - Mark Ingram: He was a non-factor for the first few years of his time with New Orleans but he's finally becoming a solid contributor. He's not exactly a star, though.

2008 - Sam Bradford: There's a big question mark next to Bradford. Honestly, we don't know how good he is because he can't stay healthy long enough for us to see. He's recently been traded to the Eagles but I really don't see him being much of a factor. I'm calling bust.

2007 - Tim Tebow: That one season with the Broncos but he was only not a bust for the 2nd half of most of those games. Also, not enough credit is given to that Bronco's defense and Matt Prater. Ever since that season? Bustamania

2006 - Troy Smith: I honestly forgot he existed. Bust.

2004 - Matt Leinart: A few promising moments early with the Cards but no dice. Bust.

2003 - Jason White: Wasn't selected in the draft, signed as a free agent to the Titans...and immediately retired. Bust.

2002 - Carson Palmer: All-Pro and one of the most respected QBs in the league.

Sure there were some where I couldn't commit to calling a bust just yet but only 20% of the past 10 Heisman winners have experienced what I would consider to be a successful NFL careers. Now, that alone isn't going to doom Winston to fail, his ability probably will if he continues the habits he showed in his last season at Florida State. The biggest one? He relies too much on his #1 receiver and throws to him exclusively except for the plays when that receiver is actually open. 

The second biggest thing that could lead to him being a bust? Being drafted by Tampa Bay. I'm a lifelong Bears fan and I love current Bucs coach Lovie Smith, I think he should still be the Bears coach and Marc Trestman should've been hired as the offensive coordinator. Still, what's done is done and the one thing all Bears fans are well aware of is that Lovie and his coaching staff isn't exactly known for developing young quarterbacks. Case and point: Rex Grossman. I don't blame Lovie for Cutler because Trestman is an offensive guru and even he couldn't coach Cutler into a decent quarterback and this is the guy that made Josh McCown relevant (and then see how he did virtually nothing with Lovie in Tampa Bay). Honestly, Tampa already has an impressive top 2 receivers, if Lovie surrounds Winston with good coaches, Winston can be coached into a good NFL player. However, I think it would take a good 3-4 seasons before we ever see that.

And finally, there's Winston's off-field activities. I'm not really going to go into detail because it's been discussed to great lengths by just about everybody over the past year. How many successful NFL players can you think of that's had this much off-field issues before they were even drafted? The list is pretty small but it's not impossible for Winston.

He's a player that has all the potential in the world and odds are, Marcos Mariota will have more immediate success for the first few seasons. Beyond that? That's up to Jameis Winston. Success is never guaranteed in the NFL, a lot of things have to fall into place but I will say this, if I were an NFL GM, I'd be looking more into Mariota. Why? Because the NFL is a "win now" league. Lovie is the perfect example of that. The Bears weren't a bad team when Lovie was fired, they just didn't make the playoffs. Every year it seems like more and more patience is lost on coaches and young, developing players. So Winston could be a good player but the question is: are fans patient enough to see it?